We always try to be as transparent as we can and we also use real time weather data to determine if we should operate the tour each evening. We never operate a tour when we think we are not going to see the Northern Lights. The reason for that is that we both think it's unethical as well as we will usually be in a pickle trying to reschedule everyone for a free retry making our bottom line sometimes stretch in to the negatives.
But how do we make this difficult call?
We have to base our decision first and foremost on cloud cover, if it's a cloudy blanket all over within 1.5 hour driving distance from Reykjavik on all forecast models we usually are not going to operate the tour.
Throughout the day we are looking at many different forecast models, veður.is, windy, weather&radar, etc. We study those as well as observing the sky and real time radar data and satillite images of the cloud cover trying our hardest to determine which model is the closest to the truth. Then at around 15:00 or 16:00 we usually decide if we are going to operate or not.
Sometimes when we have some uncertainty regarding cloud cover we do a "Late Call", that means we notify our travellers for the evening that the decision might be made a bit later, perhaps an hour before departure, as we will have more confidence in the forecast by then and we will be able to make a better guess on the evening.
Even with all of that work we are occasionally wrong and that just has to do with the nature of nature. Cloud cover is the hardest weather pattern to forecast accurately and sometimes the clouds will come in and close out the sky even though all data indicated clear skies and vice versa. It can certainly be a tough job but we are trying our hardest using all our decades of experience making sure we are doing the right thing.
What about auroral activity? Do we operate based on predicted strength of the Aurora?
We do not take any predictions of forecasted auroral activity in to the equation when we decide on the tour. Why? You might ask, and the reason is very simple. The KP forecast is a rough guess at best and the KP has nothing to do with the Aurora becoming visible in Iceland.
We can see the Aurora on a KP 1, so the KP isn't relevant. The KP is relevant for places farther south because it says how far south we can see the aurora each evening. On a KP 1 evening we will see the aurora towards the northern horizon while a KP 3 will place the aurora overhead.
The only real, reliable data, that tells us if the Aurora will become visible is the Bz value that we can see on spaceweatherlive.com . That data comes from the DSCVRY satillite located 1.5 million kilometres from the planet in the direction of the sun. Using that we can see about 1.5 hours ahead in time, that's as far as anyone can see into the future. So basing out decision on operating the tour on that is impossible.
Here we see an example of a very active evening:
I like to call the Bz the magic door, if it goes down in to the negatives/red, it opens up and allows the charged particles from the sun to arrive in our atmosphere, ionising the gases and producing northern lights. We can see the gray line there in the middle, that's earth, and everything on the right is still in space all the way to 1.5 million kilometres away. It usually takes the particles about 1-1.5 hours to arrive and that is the time we have to predict the future.
This is an example of auroral activity coming to an end:
So here we can see the "magic door" closing, knowing that we usually can say with confidence that once the current activity ends there will not be any more activity for the next 1.5 hours.
So seeing how the activity of the Aurora can suddenly flip or die down on a 1.5 hour head time we can't base our decision on operating the tour on that. We simply have to go out in clear skies and cross our fingers, we never know if it happens or not.
I hope you vere able to enjoy this post
Kolbeinn Helgi Kristjánsson (Kobe)
Founder/Guide
Aurora Viking
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